TwoCents | Sabotage! What APC Did To Ensure Northerners Won't Vote Them

2015 was an eye-opener for many of us in the South. It was when we were forced to notice the voting power of the North. The trio of Kano, Kaduna, and Katsina states supplied 4.37 million votes to the APC to help Buhari displace President Jonathan. After that, they became the bogeyman of electoral conversations – APC’s joker, and PDP’s dread. In 2019, in spite of the rising dissatisfaction with the APC in the South, the same 3 states embodied the indifference of the North to the trends in the South by delivering again for President Buhari and the APC. That these people will turn up for President Buhari, and any candidate he anoints is a general idea. That is what the APC is banking on again, even as their presidential candidate this time is not Buhari. Engage any APC supporter on the upcoming presidential elections for 5 minutes, and you’re bound to hear something about the “14 northern governors” and “Buhari votes”. I decided to look into the data, and now I can only wonder why it has yet to dawn on them that the “Buhari votes” are only a myth. They are about to be disappointed by the outcome of tomorrow’s voting process. I will explain below. The concept of Buhari votes is a myth because Buhari himself is a myth. Or should I say he was? You see, the North did not start voting for President Buhari in 2015. They are the reason for his continued political relevance since 2003. He was not the only politician who ran for office from the North, Atiku Abubakar also did, but they largely ignored others, and voted massively for Buhari every cycle. The question we should all have asked is “why?”. Why Buhari? A Northwesterner President Buhari hails from Katsina, which is one of the states that supply the most votes. The other 2 are Kaduna – where he used to reside, and Kano. All three are northwestern states. Nigerian voting patterns show that we favour sentimental attachment in making voting decisions. This is not a major factor, but it is worth noting. A devout Muslim President Buhari is famously devout in his worship. More than any politician, he was the most ideal for the Muslim majority of the North for that reason. He was preached about in mosques – in the leaked early 2000’s tape of Sheikh Isa Pantami preaching, the current Minister for Communications and Digital Economy mentioned Buhari as one they hoped will soon take over power. Again, religious sentiment is a major factor in voting decisions in Nigeria. However, I think it may not have been the strongest driving force behind the North trooping to vote for him every time. I believe the next reason was. He is not corrupt President Buhari’s edge over every other northerner running for president was the one idea that he is not corrupt, stemming from his time as Head of State. He was able to survive the HoS office without the yoke of corruption hanging on his neck due to his regime’s very public campaign against corruption. That reputation convinced most to believe in him, so much that it was the central idea upon which his victorious 2015 campaign was founded, winning him passionate votes from Southerners too. This may have been why the North was loyal to him alone, and not even to VP Atiku Abubakar whose reputation for corruption is legendary. And here’s why I might be correct. Fading out? By 2019, the North, and indeed all of Nigeria, had tasted 4 years under Buhari’s government. In those 4 years, he did not stop being a Northwesterner or a devout Muslim. In fact, he was openly biased toward people of his ethnic group and faith as he filled most of the sensitive government positions with people of his ethnic descent and faith. Yet, he lost 686,854 votes from his vote bank of the 3K states. With increased influence and power of incumbency, he was able to balance the loss by getting votes from other places, but when 686,000 of your core loyalists – who would always turn up for you without financial inducements decide to stay at home or vote another, you should seek to know why. The wool is lifted from their eyes We Southerners can tell you for free what we quickly learned about President Buhari: he is incompetent, not in charge, and corrupt. President Buhari is corrupt, and many in the North have realised it. He was voted to end the trend of top government officials embezzling funds, but he failed. In fact, corruption during President Buhari’s first term was brazen and unapologetic, with almost zero consequences for getting caught – Buhari even defended governor Ganduje who was caught stuffing wads of Dollars in kickbacks under his babanriga. Putting the data together with the causes of the voting behaviours, I am inclined to believe that while Muslim northerners always favour fellow Muslim northerners, they also want to have a feeling that whomever they are voting for also has an ideal character. Before 2015, that used to be President Buhari, the question APC should have asked is, “who is that person now?” or, “who is not that person?” Self-sabotage – sweet, sweet justice! It is good that their governors agreed to shift power to the South. It looks like many of the people are open to the idea too. But they might have made a fundamental error in their choice of presidential candidate. By picking a man with a storied history of corruption, criminality, and state capture, yet with scarcer evidence of long-time devout Islamic practice, the APC might have shot itself in the foot. Getting respected Sheikhs to whip up religious sentiments, by preaching that a leader is permitted to be corrupt if they are Muslim, might fail since the idea of Buhari’s integrity was the primary driver of the support he enjoyed. Northern Nigerians have values that should be catered for. But, by misinterpreting their sentiments, the APC has presented them with a character that runs afoul of the ideal. Therefore, the APC should not expect anything like the Buhari numbers. That possibility faded with the myth of Buhari’s integrity – it may have further declined with their pick for the presidential candidate. There is a rising star in the North. His name is Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and while he may not immediately inherit all the loyalty Buhari used to enjoy, he will surely spoil APC’s parade. APC is about to reap the consequences of their self-sabotage, and I am giddy with excitement.

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